Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-03 230.843500 279.756861 339.951691 420.696417 528.078991 6.688095e+02 8.721176e+02
2025-08-10 172.118227 227.617360 304.543353 422.931963 608.305802 9.023904e+02 1.439501e+03
2025-08-17 137.380005 192.290369 274.685463 414.340465 661.325349 1.117980e+03 2.143489e+03
2025-08-24 114.467068 167.012433 250.660761 403.427769 701.585344 1.330309e+03 3.043229e+03
2025-08-31 98.029323 147.746913 230.692208 391.694332 733.305665 1.543319e+03 4.203469e+03
2025-09-07 92.419628 144.575834 236.467406 428.338098 880.051068 2.129864e+03 7.508873e+03
2025-09-14 83.801246 134.614692 227.733423 432.974096 956.424786 2.598883e+03 1.163464e+04
2025-09-21 77.816593 128.249002 224.297910 447.782458 1067.009482 3.296265e+03 1.985395e+04
2025-09-28 71.062526 119.413300 214.248200 444.433732 1126.187898 3.883581e+03 3.116701e+04
2025-10-05 69.092989 119.284236 221.890690 486.542967 1352.064847 5.560063e+03 7.661477e+04
2025-10-12 66.547994 117.612640 225.862917 520.735323 1578.644621 7.768967e+03 2.147480e+05
2025-10-19 63.676361 114.852283 226.852756 547.263442 1800.302538 1.063127e+04 7.574876e+05
2025-10-26 60.196575 110.581709 224.088087 563.875074 2007.106081 1.433547e+04 4.505154e+06
2025-11-02 56.422196 105.226151 217.849255 568.195789 2167.680992 1.854503e+04 8.655826e+07
2025-11-09 52.298005 98.620682 207.432830 555.792969 2236.850837 2.220700e+04 NaN
2025-11-16 48.496793 92.319851 196.838266 539.888300 2278.553114 2.601906e+04 NaN
2025-11-23 45.073971 86.516004 186.686620 522.817047 2303.750922 3.008029e+04 NaN
2025-11-30 44.703801 87.618363 194.946111 576.335041 2852.282898 5.552276e+04 NaN
2025-12-07 42.633516 84.525184 191.290794 583.145108 3090.348515 7.853939e+04 NaN
2025-12-14 41.209862 82.813227 191.240226 604.954999 3491.071270 1.288332e+05 NaN
2025-12-21 39.100007 79.232810 185.292633 600.015363 3660.234614 1.774457e+05 NaN
2025-12-28 38.963741 80.469062 193.702050 662.446512 4624.074074 4.964335e+05 NaN
2026-01-04 38.421952 80.630143 198.942610 713.632032 5640.290906 1.626004e+06 NaN